The horse racing broadcaster provides up his choices from Saturday’s racing within the UK, because the Ayr Gold Cup and Silver Cup take centre stage.
You gained’t want me to let you know that autumn has arrived. Regardless of a quick tropical blast within the South on Friday, the rain has returned with a vengeance, and we’re getting into that tough time of 12 months when the consistency of summer time fast-ground kind offers method to the squelchy specialists.
Ayr sits on the sting of a yellow moist climate warning, so regulate how a lot rain materialises on race morning because the monitor hosts the Ayr Gold and Silver Cups as a part of the nine-race ITV protection.
When approaching handicaps, I are likely to search for two sorts of horses:
1. Improvers – these the handicapper is struggling to maintain up with.
2. Confirmed performers – these not being requested to do greater than they’ve already proven they’re able to.
The problem with the primary class is that they usually promote their enchancment with sturdy kind figures and are properly discovered out there. In the meantime, these dropping to marks the place they are often aggressive once more are usually much less apparent.
COMMANCHE FALLS 22/1 (15:35 Ayr) is a living proof. A Group 3 winner in his prime, he additionally has a Stewards’ Cup victory to his identify off a mark of 103 on gentle floor. His yard has struggled this season (34/405, A/E 0.83), and partly consequently, Commanche Falls has dropped to a mark of 98—9 kilos decrease than the 107 he ran off when sixth on this race final 12 months. He not too long ago chased residence stablemate and present favorite Northern Ticker at York and is healthier off on the weights, but is a considerably larger worth. At his age, he’s not open to the identical development, however he’s a strong, skilled horse who might now be on a mark from which he can nonetheless be very aggressive.
In contrast to Michael Dods’ yard, Karl Burke’s workforce can hardly be stated to have had a disappointing 2025 (101/539, A/E 1.10), however SILKY WILKIE 9/1 (14:25 Ayr) hasn’t contributed to that success. It’s now greater than two years since he final visited the winners’ enclosure—again in April 2023 at Musselburgh. Whereas it’s doable his kind is in terminal decline, it’s price remembering he was a part of the secure’s memorable 1-2-3 in final 12 months’s Ayr Gold Cup, ending second. His decline has been such that he now traces up properly down the weights within the Silver Cup, a minimum of 13lb decrease within the rankings. A replica of something near final season’s run would put him proper within the combine. Drawn in stall 1, he’ll be dedicated to racing on the far rail, however his third-place end over 5f at York final time confirmed—like Commanche Falls—that there’s life within the previous horse but. His coach can have lengthy recognized this as a really perfect alternative to take advantage of the falling mark.
There may be an improver within the area in Nariko, who handles lower within the floor and has progressed steadily below Oisin Murphy. He’s rather more outstanding out there, underlining how apparent that sort of horse tends to be to punters.
The potential for gentle floor was key within the choice of THEORYOFEVERYTHING 15/2 (13:15 Ayr) within the 1m handicap that opens the cardboard. He gained over course and distance earlier within the season and, whereas he’s in direction of the higher finish of his capabilities handicap-wise, if the rain arrives, that might greater than compensate given his glorious soft-ground document. That tilts the scales in his favour over one other Michael Dods-trained horse, Northern Categorical, who has the same profile to Commanche Falls—dropping from 105 to 98 this season and displaying indicators at York final time that he’s on the best way again. I had earmarked him off that run for the Balmoral at Ascot on Champions Day, however he may go properly right here, although the journey may stretch him if it comes up gentle.
There have been few extra startling debuts I’ve commentated on than that of Into The Sky, who traces up within the Mill Reef at Newbury on Saturday. Despatched off at 80/1 on the Berkshire monitor on debut for Jim Boyle’s yard—who, previous to that day, had been 0/146 with two-year-old debutants—he made the operating and, reasonably than folding, simply stored going additional and additional away from a area that included better-fancied runners from the likes of Richard Hannon and Charlie Appleby.
Inspired by a £50,000 bonus Newbury supplied for any juvenile winner on the monitor who goes on to win the Mill Reef—and with coffers boosted by a part-sale to Doreen Tabor—connections have paid £6,250 to complement him for the race. It’s an enormous day for Jim Boyle’s Epsom-based yard, and it could be notably becoming if he had been to win, because the race is called this 12 months in reminiscence of Mill Reef’s jockey Geoff Lewis, who sadly handed away not too long ago and skilled in Epsom for a few years after retiring from the saddle.
Into The Sky has been properly supported in current days, however when it comes to kind achieved thus far, ROCK ON THUNDER 11/5 (15:15 Newbury)—runner-up to Lifeplan within the Gimcrack—has the stronger credentials. Make no mistake, it wasn’t a classic renewal, however he impressed with the flip of foot he confirmed, and the pair pulled clear. On the costs, I choose the confirmed over the potential, and if I’m trustworthy, I’m nonetheless struggling to totally imagine what Into The Sky confirmed that day! The clock backs it up, however the worth he was allowed to go off makes me cautious about taking such a brief one this time round.
All season I’ve been speaking concerning the open nature of Group dash races, and big-priced winners proceed to oblige—the newest being Massive Mojo at Haydock. At a barely decrease stage and with a bit extra lower within the floor, hopefully GRAND GREY 18/1 (13:30 Newbury) can land the Group 3 dash on the cardboard. He makes life troublesome for himself by lacking the beginning, however his second to Sajir within the Abernant on his UK debut earlier this season reads properly, and his French kind exhibits he handles gentle floor. As he’s usually slowly away, it offers him extra time to make up misplaced lengths—and one factor you realize for certain with Jamie Spencer is he gained’t panic!
Go to Betway’s horse racing betting web page.