- The USMNT and Mexico meet within the Gold Cup ultimate in Houston at 7:00 pm ET on Sunday evening
- Together with further time, the house group has received six of the final eight conferences, and drawn the opposite two
- See my USA vs Mexico picks, predictions, plus the most effective out there odds for the 2025 Gold Cup ultimate
The 2025 Gold Cup ultimate pits CONCACAF’s two top-ranked groups in opposition to each other in Houston, TX, on Sunday evening as world #16 USA hosts world #17 Mexico at NRG Stadium at 7:00 pm ET/6:00 pm CT.
Regardless of the match going down on American soil, Mexico is a slight betting favourite to elevate the trophy. The desk beneath units out the most effective out there moneyline and total-goals odds. Underneath the desk, discover my finest picks for the sport.
Soar to: USA vs MEX Odds | H2H Outcomes | USA vs MEX Picks
USMNT vs Mexico Odds – Gold Cup Ultimate
Each groups are plus-money bets to win in common time. The longest odds on a USA victory in 90 minutes are +230 at bet365, whereas the most effective odds on a Mexico win in regulation are +150 at bet365. The longest odds on a 90-minute draw are +200 at DraftKings. The default complete objectives varies between 1.5 and a couple of.5 relying on the sportsbook, with the juice flipping relying on the quantity. Most sportsbooks have 2.5 O/U because the default with heavy juice on the over (the longest is +160 at DraftKings, however FanDuel lists is at 1.5 with heavy juice on the underneath (+142).
The chances to elevate the trophy favor the Mexicans by a slender margin. The longest odds on El Tri are at DraftKings, the place they’re -135 to seize their third Gold Cup within the final 4 tries (and record-extending tenth title). The longest odds on the USA are at FanDuel, the place the USMNT is +120 to win their second in three tries.
After a tournament-opening 3-2 win over the Dominican Republic, Mexico locked down defensively and didn’t a objective within the subsequent 4 matches, which embody wins over Suriname in group play (2-0), Saudi Arabia within the quarterfinals (2-0), and Honduras within the semis (1-0).
In an unlikely flip of occasions, defender Cesar Montes leads the group with three objectives within the event. He had simply one in his first 53 caps for Mexico. Cagey veteran Raul Jimenez has two, together with the winner in opposition to Honduras within the semis.
The USA, alternatively, stored clear sheets of their first two video games (5-0 vs Trinidad & Tobago, 1-0 vs Saudi Arabia), however has conceded within the final three: a 2-1 win vs Haiti within the group stage, a 3-2 win on penalties over Costa Rica within the quarters, and a 2-1 win over Guatemala within the semis.
After failing to attain in his first eight appearances with the nationwide group. 21-year-old winger Diego Luna has three within the final two matches, together with a first-half brace within the semifinal victory over Guatemala.
USA vs Mexico H2H Outcomes & Betting Developments
Traditionally, Mexico has had the higher of this matchup, going 34-17-24 all-time in opposition to their rivals to the north. However the current traits are way more even, and skewed to the house group. The house facet is unbeaten within the final eight matches successful 4 and drawing 4 in common time. In further time, the house group is 2-0 in that span.
The final assembly between the groups was a pleasant in October of final yr in Zapopan, with Mexico cruising to a 2-0 win, permitting only one shot heading in the right direction. The final aggressive match noticed the USMNT win 2-0 on dwelling soil in March 2024 throughout Nations League play. However each Christian Pulisic and Timothy Weah had been within the lineup for that victory. Neither are on the 2025 Gold Cup squad. Certainly, the present US squad is sort of totally comprised of MLS expertise, some extent I’ll revisit within the subsequent part.
USMNT vs Mexico Picks & Predictions
The American assault has been surprisingly potent within the 2025 Gold Cup, and I say “surprisingly” each due to the personnel and the outcomes main as much as the event. Again in June, ESPN’s Ryan O’Hanlon ranked the USMNT’s prime 15 gamers at every place. Neither of the top-two wingers (Pulisic, Weah) or top-two strikers (Folarin Balogun, Ricardo Pepi) are on the group.
Within the semis, solely three of the USMNT’s starters had been from European groups. The final time the US performed a aggressive match in opposition to Mexico (the aforementioned 2-0 win in Nations League motion), eight of the starters had been from European squads. The MLS is definitely on the rise, however Opta Analyst nonetheless solely ranks it ninth-best globally, behind Europe’s “Huge 5” (England, Italy, Germany, Spain, France), plus Portugal and Belgium’s prime flights, and Brazil’s Serie A.
Main as much as the Gold Cup, the US was completely embarrassed by world #20 Switzerland on dwelling soil (4-0 loss with zero photographs heading in the right direction) and likewise fell 2-1 to world #27 Turkiye of their different pre-tournament pleasant. Their final two aggressive matches had been 2-1 and 1-0 losses to Canada and Panama, respectively, within the Nations League playoffs (each in California).
They’ve been lucky of their opponents throughout the Gold Cup, however that involves an finish tonight. The present iteration of the USMNT is a top-20 group on the world stage, and that’s going to be obvious in opposition to a Mexican squad that’s completely locked down defensively.