The horse racing broadcaster picks out his greatest bets for Saturday’s racing across the UK, together with one within the characteristic race at Haydock.
Haydock’s Dash Cup is the Group 1 finale of 9 dwell races on ITV this Saturday, and as soon as once more the home set of sprinters look set to be put of their place by an abroad interloper in LAZZAT 2/1 (15:35 Haydock). His efficiency in beating Satono Reve at Royal Ascot charges as one of the best sprinting efficiency on this nation all season. Though he fluffed his strains when trying a repeat victory within the Maurice de Gheest in France final time, that run could have taken the freshness out of him. Lazzat had been given a break after Ascot and was simply too eager within the early phases, however with trailblazer Diligent Harry drawn simply to his left, circumstances look arrange completely for him to win one other Group 1.
There are many Group 1 winners in opposition in a big subject of 19, however typically their successes have appeared opportunistic – Time For Sandals’ 25-1 Commonwealth Cup and No Half Measures’ 66-1 July Cup wins are circumstances in level. In the meantime, Inisherin and Form Of Blue have largely struggled to regain their type this marketing campaign, although the latter did form higher in Eire final time and was solely narrowly crushed on this race final season.
On the time of writing (Friday morning), Haydock had averted the potential deluge of rain on Thursday. Whereas there have been a number of peppy showers in a single day, the bottom on the contemporary outdoors monitor ought to solely be simply on the gentle aspect of excellent. One reality value stating is that the going stick readings counsel the stands aspect (excessive numbers) is the place to be on the straight course. There have been vital draw benefits up to now on the monitor – final 12 months low numbers dominated (2, 5, 6, 4 being the primary 4 stalls dwelling from a subject of 16) – however the stick figures counsel there could also be an opportunity of a stands-side Golden Freeway, much like when Little Large Bear gained the Sandy Lane right here in Might 2023.
That shouldn’t considerably influence Lazzat, however for those who’re on the lookout for a longer-priced horse to proceed the sequence of shock dash outcomes, then Flora Of Bermuda, drawn in 16, is value contemplating. She returned to her slow-starting methods final time however ran nicely on this race final season. Up till that sleepy starting within the July Cup, she had been breaking and operating higher. Any minimize within the floor shall be no subject, and whereas she is rarely the quickest into stride, she appears to be like over the chances in comparison with her fellow home sprinters.
There may be additionally a big subject lining up for the Outdated Borough Cup, the place MASTER BUILDER 10/1 (15:00 Haydock), who gained the race final season, can as soon as once more sweep down the skin beneath William Buick. Alongside a number of of his stablemates, it was a quiet starting to the season for a horse who final marketing campaign seemed more likely to be a drive within the main staying handicaps. Consequently, he’s solely 4lb greater than his win final season. On the face of it, stall 17 will not be a plus, however he was very torpid early on final 12 months, so I anticipate William Buick shall be joyful sufficient to cross behind the sphere and once more look to return with a protracted run up the centre of the monitor.
There may be a touch from 12 months in the past within the opening race, the Superior Mile, the place it might be no shock to see vital market help for PRAGUE 5/1 (13:15 Haydock), who was very closely backed when runner-up within the race final season. He was far too eager final time, and previous to that, floor circumstances had been too fast for the bargain-buy Coolmore cast-off. Dylan Cunha is a superb coach, and Prague is one to take an early value about – if this has been the target, it’s extremely more likely to be coupled with market help. Ice Max appears to be like the principle menace, as he’s additionally suited by minimize within the floor and obtained no run at Goodwood final time.
Away from Haydock, most eyes shall be on Kalpana within the Unibet September Stakes as she appears to be like to place the ending touches to a possible Arc bid. She avoids a penalty in a a lot lower-grade contest than when she was second to Calandagan within the King George, with connections opting to take the route they used with Allow for her Arc prep. Nonetheless, there’s a much better opponent within the subject than she ever encountered in GIOVELLOTTO 11/4 (13:35 Kempton), and he might nicely flip over the favorite. He returns to Kempton for the primary time since successful on his debut right here at odds of 100-1 in 2021 and has since proved a beautiful flag bearer for Marco Botti. He goes nicely contemporary, and I’m by no means snug taking a extremely brief value a few horse resembling Kalpana in a race that’s, in impact, a trial for one thing higher down the road. If issues go barely awry, the long run can usually act as a detriment to the trouble within the current – not preferrred for punters. Juddmonte has employed a pacemaker to keep away from a crawl, however Satavia appears a considerably unusual selection given she is rated simply 60, so she doesn’t precisely look a Qirat!
There are additionally a few races that, whereas not particularly interesting as betting races, are value stating. The conflict between Bow Echo and Publish within the 13:50 at Haydock might see spectacular performances from both, probably that includes prominently in ante-post quotes for subsequent season’s 2000 Guineas. Bow Echo was very spectacular in demolishing a subject at Newbury on debut, whereas Publish caught the attention with a luckless defeat on debut at Sandown earlier than successful there final time, defeating a strong performer in Catullus who got here from a really sturdy type race.
Common readers may even word that our flagship bearer and hat-trick lander Tenability doesn’t characteristic within the alternatives this week regardless of operating in Ascot’s 15:15. That is solely as a consequence of considerations in regards to the gentle floor – he’s by Frankel and wears a tongue tie – and the presence of a rival I respect in Daiquiri Bay. Tenability might nicely land the four-timer, however on this event I gained’t be burdening him with a variety.
A winner from my tracker saved the day final weekend, and one other crops up this week within the form of RUSSET GOLD / (16:25 Ascot), who lastly has his most well-liked gentle floor on his return to handicap firm. He clocked the quickest ultimate two furlongs of the entire subject when ending off strongly at Chester regardless of solely ending seventh and hanging as if feeling the bottom. Warren Fentiman claims a useful 5lb and was positioned in Group firm over course and distance final season. He would really like the bottom to be genuinely gentle – the straight course at Ascot can dry in a short time – however is one to regulate between now and the tip of the season.