The horse racing broadcaster picks out his Saturday picks, together with one within the first Grade 1 of the Nationwide Hunt season at Haydock.
There could also be a definite chill within the air, however there may be loads to heat the hearts of leaping followers this weekend with the emergence of a number of main Nationwide Hunt horses. From Lossiemouth at Punchestown to Il Est Francais and Pic D’Orhy at Ascot, and Gray Dawning, Royale Pagaille, and Haiti Couleurs at Haydock within the first home Grade 1 of the season — the Betfair Chase.
The longevity of those horses is what units soar racing aside, and the options at Haydock and Ascot embrace confirmed course specialists in Royale Pagaille and Pic D’Orhy, each of whom boast information of 5 wins from eight begins over fences at their respective venues, although with slightly totally different profiles.
Royale Pagaille’s Haydock chase numbers are 112111P6, which embrace two wins within the Betfair Chase and a defeat of returning rival Gray Dawning 12 months in the past. The fear, although, is whether or not his masks of invincibility on the observe might have slipped with these final two defeats—particularly as he’ll flip 12 in six weeks’ time. 11-year-olds are 7/132 (A/E 0.64) in Grade 1 chases within the UK over the past 25 years. Cue Card again in 2017 was the final to realize the feat within the Ascot Chase, and the shedding run since then now numbers over 30. Kauto Star did win this race in 2011 at 11, however even given Royale Pagaille’s glorious report recent, he’s handed over.
Gray Dawning is favorite and his steady is flying. After the ‘little fish are candy’ strategy to final season’s try to win the Jumps title, the Skelton focus this season has been to focus on the larger prize-money races. Panic Assault, L’Eau Du Sud, and Thistle Ask have all been latest examples, and the yard appears set for an additional prolific weekend. Gray Dawning, nonetheless, is susceptible to a slog. He’s a easy traveller however doesn’t all the time discover what appears possible on the enterprise finish (twice crushed when buying and selling lower than 1.10 in working, together with at 1.06 on this race final 12 months). Errors typically creep in, and in HAITI COULEURS / (15:00 Haydock) he faces a sound-jumping, strong-staying rival who may nicely exploit any cracks in his armour. Haiti Couleurs went from energy to energy final season and, in Sean Bowen, has the perfect accomplice. His Irish Nationwide success on the finish of a protracted marketing campaign—regardless of getting heat beforehand—was significantly creditable, and while it’s a step up in grade, connections clearly really feel that this race, slightly than the Coral Gold Cup for which he was ante-post favorite, will play to his strengths. The sport plan can be apparent: to run the end out of Gray Dawning and set up himself because the main UK Gold Cup contender this season.
Pic D’Orhy’s Ascot numbers have a extra progressive look (F4121111), and given his accuracy over fences, it’s unusual to recollect his first season over fences led to slightly abject failure with odds-on defeats and that Ascot capsize. He did have a tough sufficient race within the Charlie Corridor, however it will all the time have been excessive on his dance card for this season, whereas Il Est Francais’s connections might nicely have half an eye fixed on the King George. Now in coaching on this nation, Il Est Francais in full cry is a sight to behold, however these blazing efforts have contrasted sharply with some nicely below-par ones, with the suspicion that there’s typically a gap that wants patching. PIC D’ORHY / (13:30 Ascot) is, on the time of writing, solely third finest out there—slightly surprisingly behind Jango Baie, whose leaping will come below numerous strain early on at a chase observe that’s far sharper than many give it credit score for. Add in Gidleigh Park and it’s a terrific race, however the sturdiness, race health, and value of Pic D’Orhy sway the argument in his favour.
Even when Gray Dawning doesn’t oblige, the Skelton bandwagon ought to nonetheless roll on courtesy of KABRAL DU MATHAN / (13:15 Haydock) and ACE OF SPADES / (14:25 Haydock). The previous was a high-profile steady change from Paul Nicholls within the shut season, and one would think about in these circumstances Dan Skelton would need to hit the bottom working. Kabral Du Mathan’s Ayr type has labored out nicely with three next-time-out winners (and a future Breeders’ Cup winner!) within the line-up.
Skelton has probabilities with each runners within the day’s large subject—the 17-strong Betfair Stayers’ Hurdle — with Ace of Spades getting the vote over Joyeux Machin, who has caught the attention on a number of events. Harry Skelton selecting Ace of Spades, alongside together with his progressive profile, tilted the scales in his favour, however there may be more likely to be an enormous payday someplace down the road for Joyeux Machin, who has had a respiration op since his return in Chepstow’s Silver Trophy, which has additionally proved stable type. Ace of Spades might also show stronger on the 3m journey than his steady companion.
The nine-race ITV protection additionally options Lossiemouth’s return within the Morgiana (14:10 Punchestown), and with State Man sadly out for the season, certainly a Champion Hurdle bid is on the agenda this marketing campaign. The non-appearance of Anzadam appears to have resulted in her being rerouted from the Hatton’s Grace, and will probably be attention-grabbing to see the place she is campaigned en route given her defeat by Structure Hill within the Christmas Hurdle final season. A race to look at slightly than get closely concerned in.
The final of these 9 ITV races additionally options one other horse with a great course report in FAMOUS BRIDGE / (15:35 Haydock), who’s 3/5 over the Haydock fences. A pipe-opener over at Ayr will hopefully have put him spot on for this, and after a quiet begin to the season, the Nicky Richards horses have picked up nicely in latest weeks (7/9, A/E 1.62 in November).
Go to Betway’s horse racing betting web page.