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The 2026 Australian Open has as soon as once more seen the cream rise to the highest with three of the 4 ladies’s semi-finalists both earlier Grand Slam champions or crushed finalists.
We check out Thursday’s motion and provide our greatest bets for the final-four match-ups.
Ladies’s Australian Open Semi-final Finest Bets
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Aryna Sabalenka to win 2-0 @ 8/11
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Jessica Pegula v Elena Rybakina Complete Video games – Over 22.5 @ 17/20
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Jessica Pegula +2.5 Sport Handicap @ 21/20
Sabalenka set for straight-sets success
Aryna Sabalenka goes up towards a well-known opponent within the first semi-final and he or she has crushed Elina Svitolina in 5 of their earlier six conferences.
The world primary has been flawless in Melbourne, successful 10 consecutive units and dropping lower than two video games in 4 of them.
She must be comparatively contemporary forward of this conflict with Svitolina, who conserved her vitality ranges in a 59-minute dismantling of Coco Gauff in her quarter-final.
Dominating Sabalenka will probably be rather more troublesome for the Ukrainian, with the highest seed having constantly crushed her opponents’ second serves.
Svitolina is unbeaten this 12 months after a title in Auckland and a press release run right here, however her defensive resilience and counterpunching haven’t beforehand outfoxed Sabalenka.
Three of their final 4 matches have been straight-sets wins for the Belarusian and he or she holds all of the playing cards for this conflict too as a two-time former Melbourne champion and a four-time Grand Slam winner.
Given Sabalenka’s clear path to the final 4, superior serve/return metrics and dominant latest head-to-head, backing her to win in straight units stays essentially the most logical option to facet with the favorite at a backable worth.
Tip 1: Aryna Sabalenka to win 2-0 @ 8/11
Second semi-final might go lengthy
Fifth seed Elena Rybakina rides into the semi-finals with a 7-1 document for 2026 and a Melbourne marketing campaign constructed on a dominant supply, successful round 75 per cent of first-serve factors and being damaged solely a handful of occasions all match.
The Kazakh leads most key 2026 serve and return metrics over American sixth seed Pegula and has a slight latest edge of their rivalry, notably on exhausting courts, which underpins her standing as favorite.
Pegula, who’s 8-1 for the season, has additionally not dropped a set in Melbourne and is available in battle-hardened after again‑to‑again wins over massive hitters Madison Keys and Amanda Anisimova.
Each ladies have been environment friendly somewhat than erratic, however Pegula’s scrambling means and low, flat groundstrokes are well-suited to dragging Rybakina into longer exchanges, particularly in fast situations.
This matchup might simply go the space, simply as their final one did on the WTA Finals in Riyadh.
Due to this fact, with the total-games line across the low‑20s, it appears to be like like an invite to take an over, masking the probability of a detailed two-setter or a full-distance battle.
Tip 2: Pegula v RybakinaTotal Video games – Over 22.5 @ 17/20
Pegula can keep inside touching distance
Whereas Rybakina deserves to be favorite, the head-to-head is degree at 3-3 and Pegula’s present degree plus her more durable draw trace that she is barely underestimated on the handicap.
Taking Pegula with a 2.5-game headstart permits for a slender Rybakina win or an outright Pegula success and aligns with the sensation that this because the extra unpredictable and aggressive of the 2 semi-finals.
Tip 3: Jessica Pegula +2.5 Sport Handicap @ 21/20