The horse racing broadcaster picks out his 5 greatest bets from Sandown and Musselburgh on Saturday, and delivers the subsequent instalment of Cheltenham Nook waiting for the Competition.
A giant weekend in Eire with each days of the Dublin Racing Competition forming a part of ITV’s Saturday and Sunday protection, however with the assembly seeming to hold within the stability.
Galopin Des Champs, Gaelic Warrior, Inothewayurthinkin, Romeo Coolio, Narciso Has, Remaining Demand, Lossiemouth and Marine Nationale are all excessive‑profile horses that includes prominently in Competition markets, as a consequence of be in motion at a gathering which two years in the past produced 11 Competition winners.
In contrast to final 12 months, when Leopardstown needed to water – so dry had the construct‑as much as the assembly been – this time a midweek deluge left the observe flooded. Although the bottom employees labored wonders to pump off the standing water, with extra rain forecast (and, since writing, an inspection now introduced for Saturday’s card on Friday afternoon), it makes discovering betting alternatives tough because of the potential for non‑runners and the truth that a number of could also be conscious of horses having exhausting races if their essential targets are simply 5 weeks away.
Sandown has additionally had its climate points, and the hurdles course will journey notably testing, however that gained’t hassle HENRI THE SECOND 3/1 (15:10 Sandown), who was runner-up to a different of at the moment’s runners, Crimson Dust Street, on this race a 12 months in the past. An 8lb pull and no prep run for Crimson Dust Street tilt issues in favour of Henri The Second, who confirmed his wellbeing when a slender second at Sandown final time over a visit too brief and on floor that was quick sufficient. His hurdles kind on the observe reads 1P4122, all in races which have labored out effectively, and he’ll take loads of beating right here.
Gary Moore additionally has a wonderful total Sandown Nationwide Hunt document (93/690, A/E 1.24), and RIP WHEELER 11/2 (13:25 Sandown) will be forgiven his blip final time at Wincanton, the place he was badly hampered early within the race and by no means acquired again concerned. He had regarded very progressive when successful decrease‑grade races at Huntingdon and Lingfield and, together with his secure’s document on the observe (the yard additionally saddle Lylian) and recency bias bettering the chances on supply, he can regain the successful thread right here.
A probable robust tempo and a drop again to 2m sees DENEMETHY 12/1 (EW) (14:02 Sandown) wanting over the chances within the Handicap Chase. With no less than 4 horses who often go from the entrance, it may play into the fingers of this robust traveller, who will be eager within the early levels. He does want a great tow into the race, as he doesn’t at all times discover what appears possible, however that might be partly defined by his stamina being stretched, and a strongly run 2m may set issues up completely. Given his profile, and in case he as soon as once more doesn’t totally ship, the each-way angle (or back-to-lay in operating) appeals greater than a straight win choice.
Musselburgh’s two-day card offers supporting motion on ITV on each Saturday and Sunday, and within the first reside race it was a shock to see WONDERFULWONDERFUL 12/1 (13:10 Musselburgh) priced up because the outsider of the sector. She did an excessive amount of too quickly at Newbury in a Listed Mares’ race and, with Lord prone to drive the difficulty, if she is ridden extra conservatively she will be able to outrun her odds. The 2 fillies on this race (Made U Blush of Dan Skelton’s the opposite) each look to have been underestimated, and it will be no shock to see this market change considerably between now and the off.
Two earlier winners line up within the Scottish County Hurdle, the place desire is simply given to AFADIL 11/4 (13:43 Musselburgh), the 2024 winner, over the horse he chased dwelling final 12 months, Welsh Charger. There doesn’t look to be an enormous quantity of tempo right here, which tilts the scales in his favour, as Welsh Charger can hit a flat spot earlier than rallying, as he did 12 months in the past. Freddie Gingell is aware of Afadil effectively, and the secure of Paul Nicholls has a great document right here (34/102 A/E 1.24), while Afadil’s personal kind figures on the observe learn 13124.
CHELTENHAM CORNER
Many Cheltenham betting markets will bear important adjustments this weekend, with so many contenders in motion on the Dublin Racing Competition, however listed here are just a few of the extra important strikes after Cheltenham Trials Day and outcomes this week.
Champion Hurdle
The unhappy damage to Sir Gino as soon as once more threw this division huge open. The New Lion did sufficient to win a race that was a dash and regarded to bear little resemblance to what he’ll encounter in March. In consequence, Lossiemouth (as a consequence of run in Eire on Sunday) was promoted to favorite in most ante-post lists.
It was excellent news that the damage to Sir Gino, while important, seems not fairly as unhealthy because it regarded on the time, and it might effectively open the door for Structure Hill – who has a run on the Flat at Southwell on Friday – to return again into calculations.
There’s additionally the added complication of a number of mares being distinguished out there, which is able to little doubt result in comparable dilemmas as as to whether to run within the Champion—so richly rewarded for Golden Ace final season – or to soak up the Mares, as Lossiemouth did. The Mares is now on the Thursday, on the stiffer New Course, which can additionally affect resolution‑making.
Gold Cup
The Cotswold Chase was one other small‑area trial spoiled by a gradual tempo. It was good to see Spillane’s Tower get again to successful methods for Jimmy Mangan, however his Competition goal is prone to be decided by how different JP McManus horses reminiscent of Truth To File and Inothewayurthinkin carry out at Leopardstown. Gray Dawning was not as effectively positioned tactically within the Cotswold, made a blunder at an important stage (not the primary time his leaping has precipitated points late in a race), and was not given something like a tough time.
Stayers’ Hurdle
The most important affect of Saturday’s Trials Day outcomes was the arrival of Ma Shantou on the staying scene. He ran straight away from Impose Toi, whose suspect stamina lastly gave out in a more true run race, and he might now, together with Sturdy Chief, be stored for Aintree. Ma Shantou definitely stunned me, however I nonetheless assume it’s straightforward sufficient to select holes within the kind, and the likes of Teahupoo and Honesty Coverage look to have had their possibilities considerably enhanced. Impose Toi’s defeat makes it extremely possible that the latter will now head right here because the McManus primary and, with neither in motion on the DRF, this market is just about shaped now.
Go to Betway’s horse racing betting web page.