The horse racing broadcaster presents up his finest bets from Saturday’s playing cards across the UK, together with two from the function races.
9 races are cut up throughout 4 venues on ITV4 on Saturday, when little question the fallout from Structure Hill’s run the evening earlier than at Southwell can even be a lot mentioned.
5 of these ITV4 races come from Kempton and emphasise why the monitor can be such a loss, as its free‑draining nature seems possible to offer one of the best floor for some time – presently Good to Mushy (Mushy in Locations). There may be nonetheless the prospect of a heavy bathe between now and racing, however hopefully it is not going to resemble the quagmire of current weeks.
Two of the function races look extremely prone to go the way in which of the favourites courtesy of PRECIOUS MAN 8/11 (13:45 Kempton) within the Grade 2 Adonis Juvenile Hurdle and JAX JUNIOR 8/13 (14:25 Kempton) within the Pendil Novices’ Chase. Treasured Man travels strongly, so a flat monitor performs extra to his strengths than chief rival One Horse City, and he can reverse the Cheltenham kind on 5 lb higher phrases.
Jax Junior comfortably beat Jeriko Du Reponet and Miami Magic in a newbies’ chase right here in November, and the current return to type of his yard can be a giant plus. Having been simply 2/36 (A/E 0.55) via December and January, the yard of Lucy Wadham are 4/14 (A/E 2.57) this month, and Jax Junior can bolster that stat additional. It is usually price remembering that it is a yard which has traditionally outperformed the market from an enormous pattern (505/3507, A/E 1.12), and their runners are at all times price shut inspection.
My tracker bursts into life on Saturday, so the choices shall be unfold extra extensively this week. FORTUNATE MAN 13/2 (14:43 Newcastle) seems each in my tracker and in one of many ITV4 races – the Eider at Newcastle. He has been introduced alongside steadily and has lengthy appealed as the kind for a gruelling check like this. He was despatched handicap chasing immediately after being given his mark and has spent the final couple of seasons gaining expertise, with the odd win alongside the way in which. Nonetheless solely a 7yo, this basis can stand him in good stead as he encounters an excessive journey for the primary time. I had him marked down as a possible Midlands Nationwide horse, however there is no such thing as a motive why this might not go well with simply as effectively.
The opposite three choices all run at Chepstow, beginning with A PERFECT DAY / (14:55 Chepstow) within the last Pertemps Qualifier for the Competition. He did not final house in very testing situations at Wincanton final time however confirmed sufficient for lengthy sufficient to counsel he can do injury off 120. The winner that day, Champagne Stylish, adopted up at Haydock, and his coach Ben Clarke continues to impress (49/346, A/E 1.19). He stays very a lot a yard to observe. This is likely to be extra of a win goal for him than for a number of others, for whom easy qualification – with out compromising their marks – could be the intention. It’s price remembering that Monmiral stuffed the ultimate qualification slot on this when 4th in 2024 earlier than profitable the Closing itself.
DR T J ECKLEBURG / (15:40 Chepstow) appears to be coming again to life simply in time to repeat his victory on this race final 12 months. He gained that off a mark of 125 and features up 5 lb decrease right here, having failed to fireside earlier within the season and subsequently dropping shortly within the weights. The appliance of cheekpieces sparked enchancment at Windsor final time (a monitor that might not play to his strengths), and that run instantly marked this race as an apparent goal.
Lastly, BANDE ORGANISÉE / (17:18 Chepstow) can land the maiden bumper. He comes from a very robust kind race, having completed third on debut, with the winner, second, and fourth all profitable subsequent time. I’ve been ready for him to reappear, and even a copy of that debut effort would make him very onerous to beat.
Aintree angle
Having examined some ante-post Cheltenham betting angles in final week’s weblog, focus this week switches to Aintree. Our annual reminder: with the weights for the Grand Nationwide launched this week and no penalties for any horse profitable any further, that is the purpose within the season when a number of contenders immediately take a serious step ahead. That is the explanation the Bobbyjo at Fairyhouse has been added to ITV4 protection, with all runners holding Aintree entries, and its consequence is prone to immediate a major shift within the ante‑submit market.
One which did look fascinating when the weights had been printed is Mayo Nationwide and Galway Plate winner WESTERN FOLD 50000/1000 , who could possibly be price taking an early place on at a giant worth.