Florida vs Houston Predictions, Skilled Picks & Greatest Bets for Nationwide Championship

• The West #1 Florida Gators and Midwest #1 Houston Cougars will meet within the remaining of March Insanity
• Each groups overcame vital second-half deficits within the Ultimate 4
• See my Florida vs Houston predictions, picks, and greatest bets for Monday’s nationwide championship sport

On paper, it’s a battle of evenly-matched titans within the remaining of the 2025 NCAA Match because the West #1 Florida Gators (35-4, 27-11 ATS) face the Midwest #1 Houston Cougars (35-4, 21-17-1 ATS) on the Alamodome in San Antonio on Monday, April 7. The opening Florida vs Houston odds favored the Gators by 1.5 factors and the road has stayed roughly the identical over the past couple days. On the morning of gameday, Florida is favored by wherever from 1.0 to 1.5 factors, relying on the sportsbook, with the UF moneyline sitting at -115 throughout the board.

Florida vs Houston Prediction & Picks

• Florida moneyline (-115) at Caesars
• First half underneath 66.5 (-115) at DraftKings

I used to be on Florida on the outset of the match and, pretty much as good as Houston has regarded, I’m not backing off the Gators now. They’re too deep, too tall, and too athletic, and so they have the high-end NBA-level expertise that Houston lacks. Senior guard Walter Clayton Jr (18.5 PPG, 3.7 RPG, 4.1 APG), sophomore ahead Thomas Haugh (9.9 PPG, 6.2 RPG, 2.1 APG), and sophomore middle Alex Condon (10.5 PPG, 7.6 RPG, 2.3 APG) are all featured within the newest NBA.com mock draft.

Junior guard Milos Uzan (11.5 PPG, 3.0 RPG, 4.3 APG) is the one Cougars participant in that mock.

I may give Houston credit score the place credit score is due. Total, no crew has been extra spectacular for the reason that begin of December. The Cougars are 31-1 in that span and, after their absolutely-absurd-completely-improbable 70-67 upset of Duke within the Ultimate 4, have gained 18 straight video games.

Main 66-57 with underneath two minutes to play, the Blue Devils had a 97.5% win likelihood in response to KenPom earlier than a late 11-1 Houston run left everybody with a hundred-mile radius of Durham shocked.

Houston’s calling card all season has been its top-rated protection, which sits first at KenPom, Haslametrics, and Torvik. Florida is second in offensive ranking at KenPom, trailing Duke, however don’t let that idiot you about simply how elite this Gators crew is on the offensive finish. Their 128.8 O-Ranking would have ranked first nationally each season for the previous decade, it simply occurs that Duke’s O-Ranking (130.0) is the very best within the KenPom period. Florida’s 128.8 quantity is the third-highest ever, additionally trailing 2014-15 Wisconsin (129.0).

Houston’s D-Ranking of 87.3, however, solely would have been the highest ranking nationally 3 times within the final decade.

In different phrases, Florida’s offense is almost-record-setting whereas Houston’s protection – whereas unquestionably elite – isn’t even among the many top-ten from the previous ten years. On this battle of strength-on-strength, Florida’s energy is stronger.

That offensive firepower was on full show towards Auburn within the Ultimate 4 when Florida, like Houston, was staring down the barrel of an enormous second-half deficit. The Tigers took an eight-point lead into halftime and stretched it to 9 early within the second stanza. However a direct 11-0 UF run would give the Gators a 51-49 lead. After a back-and-for affair over the following eight minutes, Florida would take the lead for good (64-63) with just below seven to play, in the end triumphing 79-73.

Clayton had one other monster sport with 34 factors, 4 rebounds, and two assists. Florida’s huge frontcourt restricted Johni Broome to simply 15 factors and 7 boards on 6-of-14 capturing.

Up to date Florida vs Houston Odds

The Florida vs Houston odds opened with the Gators favored by a degree and a half and laying -118 odds on the moneyline. Over the past 16 hours, the road has moved barely in the direction of the Cougars. The moneyline is now a decide’em with -110 odds every manner. The Gators are listed as one-point favorites towards the unfold, however Houston +1.0 is priced at -115.

The sport complete has ticked up half a degree to 141.0 after opening at 140.5.

The March Insanity public betting splits present the Gators getting nearly all of ATS deal with and moneyline deal with thus far, whereas a lot of the game-total cash is on the underneath (indicating a modicum of reverse line motion in all three markets).

Up to now, the Gators are getting 61% of moneyline deal with on 66% of ML tickets. Florida can be getting 57% of ATS deal with on 56% of ATS bets. With respect to the sport complete, 79% of early cash is on the underneath on 82% of the O/U wagers.